Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 6.513651 7.723432 9.056444 10.628899 12.427494 14.414806 16.770858
2025-02-16 4.378225 5.919759 7.806817 10.261958 13.344234 17.056301 21.832215
2025-02-23 3.054509 4.650245 6.794432 9.828462 13.943764 19.256606 26.546005
2025-03-02 2.184972 3.712812 5.947156 9.352067 14.287848 21.042515 30.812901
2025-03-09 1.689897 3.170134 5.503171 9.293184 15.103686 23.447584 36.045391
2025-03-16 1.308106 2.699524 5.053924 9.112113 15.658399 25.471561 40.856985
2025-03-23 1.134714 2.538242 5.057618 9.615150 17.272733 29.147803 48.321528
2025-03-30 0.942764 2.290888 4.859909 9.735965 18.262195 31.924881 54.613973
2025-04-06 0.778321 2.053726 4.630913 9.754168 19.058285 34.432588 60.638987
2025-04-13 0.642171 1.839215 4.401096 9.726126 19.750648 36.799948 66.575225
2025-04-20 0.597982 1.824165 4.565414 10.456552 21.845405 41.628227 76.791580
2025-04-27 0.529337 1.730815 4.547251 10.820486 23.294845 45.449795 85.561576
2025-05-04 0.468434 1.645450 4.541089 11.226913 24.899581 49.719978 95.474981
2025-05-11 0.389032 1.485548 4.337015 11.194362 25.664397 52.577175 103.183540
2025-05-18 0.308133 1.292158 4.012535 10.850070 25.771089 54.245883 108.919542
2025-05-25 0.237886 1.103452 3.656198 10.373715 25.546246 55.266721 113.544676
2025-06-01 0.196893 0.997649 3.494286 10.324237 26.200802 57.979396 121.378822
2025-06-08 0.158841 0.885286 3.287650 10.131386 26.518859 60.052424 128.137179
2025-06-15 0.146910 0.873420 3.372312 10.683561 28.532505 65.582730 141.662469
2025-06-22 0.126261 0.814464 3.300330 10.816367 29.603657 69.283897 151.883268
2025-06-29 0.106411 0.748964 3.192447 10.836517 30.413158 72.498864 161.327231
2025-07-06 0.088837 0.684687 3.072977 10.805938 31.096479 75.489974 170.479443
2025-07-13 0.086618 0.701703 3.238309 11.604349 33.841068 82.946828 188.779096